A diminished large carnivore guild with contrasting species-habitat associations persists outside national parks in Namibia’s central-eastern landscape

Abstract

Understanding species distributions is key for effective biodiversity conservation. We conducted a large-scale camera trapping survey in five systematic grids across central-eastern Namibia to identify drivers of large carnivore occupancy and to predict occurrence across a broader mixed-use landscape spanning 161,629 km2. Through targeted searches for intensive-use areas and pooling detections across camera trap stations, we reliably detected the most elusive carnivores. We identified a diminished large carnivore guild with the two top predators (lion (Panthera leo) and spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta)) functionally absent, although present historically. While brown hyenas (Parahyaena brunnea) were omnipresent, we found local variations in guild composition. African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) were more common near their resident population eastwards and in areas of greater vegetation productivity. The distribution of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) was determined by the proportional cover of grass, consequently woody encroachment of grasslands may pose a threat. Leopard (Panthera pardus) occurrence was low in areas with a high human footprint, and high in areas with rugged terrain and greater vegetation productivity. The diminished large carnivore guild with contrasting species-habitat associations may enable persistence of subordinate carnivores, such as the cheetah and African wild dog, across this mixed-use landscape. However, we underscore the importance of multi-species conservation approaches to maintain ecological interactions. The large proportion (80 %) of suitable habitat identified, i.e. where probability of occupancy exceeded 0.5, is an encouraging outcome for the region’s potential to hold value for carnivore persistence and potentially recolonization. Considering the limited space for protected area expansion, holistic conservation approaches are warranted to ensure viable large carnivore guilds and functional ecosystems.